Redrafting Matthew Tkachuk and the Top 10 of 2016 NHL Draft

Matthew Tkachuk has taken over the NHL this postseason in serving to lead the Florida Panthers to a Stanley Cup Final appearance because the No. 8 seed within the Eastern Conference.

But it be now not just correct just a few couple of collection in one postseason that has helped elevate him to the league’s elite.

Over the final two frequent seasons, the 25-one year-broken-down has topped the 100-point mark every one year, is an MVP finalist this season and has been one of many most effective avid gamers within the league.

For the reason that beginning of the 2021-22 frequent season, he ranks 11th in dreams (82), third in assists (131) and third in entire points (213). In conjunction with the box-salvage numbers, he has additionally been one of many league’s most dominant avid gamers in using possession.

Of the 578 skaters who bear played at least 1,000 minutes of 5-on-5 hockey the previous two years, Tkachuk ranks third in entire shot strive portion, second in dreams scored portion, fifth in anticipated dreams portion, second in scoring probability portion and third in high-hazard scoring probability portion, per Natural Stat Trick.

Add within the fact that he’s one of many NHL’s most effective pests and forecheckers, and likewise you can bear the entire kit of a participant.

With that in mind, we determined to return to the 2016 NHL draft (the place Tkachuk went No. 6 total to the Calgary Flames) and redraft the pause 10 with the benefit of hindsight.

Where would Tkachuk dawdle as of late sparkling everything all individuals is aware of? And what would the relaxation of the pause 10 peer admire?

Let’s dig into it.

Long-established decide: Auston Matthews

Redraft decide: Auston Matthews

As tempting because it will possible be to place Tkachuk within the No. 1 region, particularly given the hot playoff success (and the lack of playoff success in Toronto), Auston Matthews is tranquil doubtlessly the decide here.

The 25-one year-broken-down has been the pause fair scorer within the league since making his debut, already potting 299 dreams in easiest 481 video games. That’s a 0.62 per-sport moderate, which is a 50-fair accelerate per 82 video games.

The absolute best thing that has kept him from hitting the 50-fair mark extra than once were accidents and just a few shortened seasons in 2020 and 2021.

The largest knock on Matthews may per chance be the lack of group success within the playoffs, nonetheless it surely’s in actuality tough to pin that solely on him. He tranquil averages 0.44 dreams per sport within the playoffs for his profession, whereas he has nine dreams and 20 entire points in 18 playoff video games over the final two years.

Matthews used to be drafted No. 1 total to benefit change into the Maple Leafs into a contender, and he has somewhat grand done that whereas additionally being one of many pause total offensive avid gamers within the league and the biggest fair scorer within the NHL since he arrived.

Long-established Decide: Patrik Laine

Redraft decide: Matthew Tkachuk

Laine used to be now not basically a snide decide by the Jets consequently of he mostly did what he used to be marketed to enact: He scored quite a lot of dreams.

He just correct wasn’t a franchise-altering participant. The Finn used to be sooner or later traded to the Columbus Blue Jackets for one more high-three decide in 2016, Pierre-Luc Dubois.

With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, Tkachuk is the obvious decide here for the total causes mentioned earlier.

He can affect the game in nearly every manner, from being a high-line scorer, to an elite possession-driver, to a cage-rattling pest.

The absolute best means flaw here is that if Tkachuk used to be unwilling to signal a prolonged-interval of time contract extension in Calgary—a group that used to be very honest at cases with him—would he were willing to re-register Winnipeg? Not easiest bear the Jets been a ways extra inconsistent and mediocre over the final six years, it has now not in actuality been a destination for avid gamers to forestall for the prolonged interval of time.

Although he did now not re-signal, Tkachuk has proved to be an elite NHL participant, and although the Jets had taken him and needed to trade him, they’d bear tranquil had an elite trade asset.

Long-established Decide: Pierre-Luc Dubois

Redraft decide: Adam Fox

Dubois used to be a surprise decide on the time (Jesse Puljujärvi used to be anticipated to be the decide here), nonetheless he was out to be a in actuality honest participant who brought size, stable production and a in actuality honest two-manner sport to the Blue Jackets’ lineup.

They at closing dealt him to Winnipeg for Laine and Jack Roslovic.

In hindsight, neither Dubois or Laine would were the decide in this region. It may per chance actually presumably were one of many Norris-caliber defensemen to advance wait on out of the 2016 class.

On this case, that is Fox.

The 25-one year-broken-down used to be in the beginning picked within the third round in 2016 and ended up having his rights battle thru two moderately a couple of organizations (Calgary after which Carolina) before at closing turning into a free-agent signing with his most well-most standard destination: Contemporary York.

Nonetheless, this exercise is now not about avid gamers coming into into their most well-most standard destination, it be concerning the place they’d bag picked in step with the avid gamers they’ve change into.

Fox already has one Norris Trophy on his resume and one more high-five perform to his establish.

He’s one of many elite avid gamers within the league at his region and may per chance per chance per chance dominate a sport in all phases. He’s an elite point-producer from the blue line, can quarterback a energy play and is a honest No. 1 defenseman.

In a superb world, this may per chance bear given Columbus a 1-2 punch on defense of Fox and Zach Werenski to make its blue line around. A bunch may per chance per chance per chance enact a heck of a lot worse than that.

Long-established Decide: Jesse Puljujärvi

Redraft decide: Charlie McAvoy

Puljujärvi used to be supposed to be a core participant in Edmonton’s rebuild alongside Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, nonetheless he used to be by no methodology in a region to place it all together in Edmonton.

With hindsight, McAvoy would were everything the Oilers wished on the time and tranquil want as of late. But he used to be drafted 14th total by the Boston Bruins.

The one Achilles for the Oilers over the final few years has been their inability to shield and pause dreams, and the lack of a honest No. 1 defenseman has been on the forefront of those struggles.

McAvoy may per chance per chance now not bear the offensive upside of some moderately a couple of high defenders within the NHL, nonetheless he is as honest as they advance defensively and likewise you’ll have to factor in he may per chance per chance per chance win extra points taking half in on a group with McDavid and Draisaitl at ahead.

The 25-one year-broken-down has carried out within the pause 10 of the Norris vote casting three years in a row (with this one year’s results tranquil pending), and he ranks thirteenth out of 202 defensemen (minimum 1,000 minutes played) in phrases of the fewest anticipated dreams allowed per 60 minutes since making his NHL debut.

Here is the excellent combination of the biggest participant available additionally being an foremost want for the group making the decide.

Ideal now, the Oilers are searching to compete for a Stanley Cup with Darnell Nurse as their huge-minute defenseman and it be now not working out. A participant admire McAvoy getting those minutes would bear Edmonton deal nearer to a championship.

Long-established decide: Olli Juolevi

Redraft decide: Tage Thompson

A pair of years within the past this may per chance were an ideal want. It may per chance actually presumably now not even be one thing that used to be on the table.

But now not all avid gamers accomplish on the identical accelerate, and once in a whereas it takes some a exiguous bit longer to achieve their means.

Thompson used to be a exiguous of a journeyman when it came to reaching his beefy means. He used to be in the beginning a unhurried first-round decide by St. Louis, used to be traded to Buffalo within the Ryan O’Reilly deal, and regarded admire one more forgettable decide who used to be by no methodology going to pan out. The Sabres were doubtlessly shut to giving up on him.

Then he blossomed nearly in a single day. And likewise you can’t ignore the star he has change into, consequently of it be a franchise-altering vogue for the Sabres.

The 25-one year-broken-down is listed at 6’6″, 220 pounds, has sublime ability and one of many most extremely effective slap pictures within the league. Whereas you view his 38-fair season in 2021-22 used to be a fluke, he came wait on at some stage within the 2022-23 season and obliterated those numbers by scoring 47 dreams and 94 points in easiest 78 video games.

Thompson is now not in actuality exhibiting any signs of slowing down and desires to be one of many NHL’s premier affect offensive avid gamers for the foreseeable future.

Long-established decide: Matthew Tkachuk

Redraft decide: Jesper Bratt

In hindsight, the Flames ended up with a take at No. 6 total, and they are by no methodology going to bear one more to determine Tkachuk in this redraft. He’s prolonged gone at this point.

Instead, the Flames bag to rob a moderately a couple of high-line scorer who has helped lead a handy e book a rough turnaround in Contemporary Jersey.

Bratt made his NHL debut at 19, and for the first four years of his profession, he showed some brief flashes of being a high-line scorer. After some loyal development from one one year to the subsequent, he began to emerge as an affect participant at some stage within the 2021-22 season.

The 24-one year-broken-down is now not the most entire participant within the NHL, nonetheless he has proved to be an famend point-producer and offensive playmaker. He’s coming off a 32-fair effort in 2022-23 for a Devils group that reached the second round of the Eastern Conference playoffs and is approaching his age-25 season, when scorers beginning to hit their peak level of production.

His shot volume has increased every one year he has been within the league on a per-sport foundation. And given how strong that shot is, it be now not out of the count on to mediate he may per chance per chance per chance generate adequate potentialities to vary into a 40-fair scorer at some point soon within the now not-too-a ways-off future.

Long-established decide: Clayton Keller

Redraft decide: Pierre-Luc Dubois

Here is a region the place an argument is at possibility of be made for keeping the identical decide.

Keller has developed into an famend scorer and Arizona’s biggest participant, nonetheless Dubois affords a exiguous extra versatility and value to the lineup.

For starters, whereas Keller may per chance per chance per chance desire a exiguous bit extra price offensively, he doesn’t in actuality bring a ton to the table when the puck is now not on his stick. Dubois is now not easiest the next defensive participant and possession driver, nonetheless he additionally has the fringe of being a heart over a winger.

Give Dubois a beefy 82-sport season and he goes to present you with with 25 dreams, 60 points and withhold the play transferring within the factual path.

The Coyotes desperately desire a No. 1 heart, so this decide would resolve a huge want whereas additionally giving them a heck of a participant.

Dubois is now not a important particular person by any methodology, nonetheless a heart with his size, strength and production is an especially precious asset to make around.

Long-established decide: Alex Nylander

Redraft decide: Alex DeBrincat

DeBrincat fell the entire manner to the second round within the 2016 draft for one fair easiest: He used to be deemed too exiguous to be a high decide. That used to be it.

His production within the Ontario Hockey League used to be as honest as any draft prospect that one year, and no one within the class scored dreams admire him.

Even in 2016, despite the fact that, the NHL used to be a exiguous too fearful of avid gamers who did now not verify the total bins when it came to height and weight. DeBrincat has proved none of that matters as he has already keep two 40-fair seasons on the board and scored 187 cases in his first 450 video games.

It has taken a couple of years nonetheless the Sabres bear sooner or later began to portion together a promising roster beefy of affect avid gamers.

DeBrincat would were one more to add to that core.

The 25-one year-broken-down would be a exiguous one-dimensional within the sense that quite a lot of his price is in step with inserting the puck within the win, nonetheless whereas you occur to are easiest going to bear one dimension, that’s a somewhat honest one to bear.

Long-established decide: Mikhail Sergachev

Redraft decide: Patrik Laine

Montreal made a in actuality strong decide with Sergachev in 2016 after which made the heroic possibility to trade him to Tampa Bay for Jonathan Drouin.

On paper, it gave the influence cherished a somewhat stable deal.

Sergachev surely had means on the time of the trade. But Drouin gave the influence admire he used to be on the verge of blossoming into a high-line participant.

For a vary of causes, it has now not worked out for him in Montreal, whereas Sergachev went on to vary into a key portion of a two-time Stanley Cup champion in Tampa Bay. Vigorous spoil for Montreal.

Whereas it will possible be tempting to merely follow Sergachev and never trade him, Laine has fallen factual into their lap within the redraft. You may per chance presumably presumably must rob him in that region.

The 25-one year-broken-down Finn is one more one-dimensional fair-scorer from this class, nonetheless again, he is amazing at that one dimension.

Is the No. 9 region too low? Maybe. Accidents bear restricted him in fresh times, and he by no methodology in actuality change into the elite fair-scorer he regarded admire turning into after his first two years, nonetheless he would tranquil be an spell binding portion to add to a Montreal roster that already has Slash Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky to make around.

Long-established Decide: Tyson Jost

Redraft decide: Clayton Keller

The rich merely bag richer with this decide.

Jost had quite a lot of upside when the Avalanche picked him with the No. 10 decide in 2016, nonetheless he used to be at closing traded to Minnesota in 2022 for Nico Sturm. He’s an NHL participant, nonetheless a purpose participant and nothing extra.

Keller, meanwhile, has change into a high-line scorer without grand benefit in Arizona.

He may per chance presumably be a superb fit for Colorado’s up-tempo form of play and would doubtlessly be even extra unhealthy on an Avalanche group alongside Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and the puck-transferring defensemen they’ve.

Keller is one more participant from the 2016 class who took a couple of years to achieve his means, nonetheless since he did, it has been dynamic, particularly over the final two years.

The 2022-23 season used to be a honest breakout one year for the 24-one year-broken-down as he scored 37 dreams with 86 entire points in 82 video games. It used to be even extra impressive must you focus on concerning the devastating leg harm he used to be getting wait on from.

Keller has already scored 133 dreams in his profession without taking half in next to a honest high-line heart. Imagine what he would be in a region to enact on a contender with high-tier playmakers who can bag him the puck in honest positions.