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NFL Week 11 Picks: Breaking Down Best Value Props and Stars’ Outlooks

 NFL Week 11 Picks: Breaking Down Best Value Props and Stars’ Outlooks

NFL Week 11 Picks: Breaking Down Simplest Worth Props and Stars’ Outlooks

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    ORCHARD PARK, NY - NOVEMBER 13: Buffalo Payments quarterback Josh Allen (17) in the main quarter against the Denver Broncos at Highmark Stadium November 13, 2023. (Photograph by Andy Infamous/MediaNews Community/The Denver Post through Getty Photos)

    Andy Infamous/MediaNews Community/The Denver Post through Getty Photos

    Four groups are on bye because the NFL heads into Week 11, nonetheless there are nonetheless a lot of animated props to resolve between amongst the more than just a few 28 groups taking the self-discipline.

    Essentially the most thrilling recreation on the docket in Week 11 is the Monday evening Big Bowl rematch between the Kansas Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. But we additionally possess a handful of division clashes in Steelers vs. Browns, Bears vs. Lions, Titans vs. Jaguars, Giants vs. Commanders, Jets vs. Payments and Seahawks vs. Rams.

    Of the non-intradivision video games, Cardinals vs. Texans would possibly possibly brand to be indubitably some of the week’s most thrilling as a healthy Kyler Murray faces off against C.J. Stroud, who’s two weeks removed from a 5-landing day commute.

    Let’s destroy down three of this week’s perfect excessive-worth props.

Baker Mayfield over 1.5 Passing TDs (+154)

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    TAMPA, FLORIDA - NOVEMBER 12: Baker Mayfield #6 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers attempts a fling at some stage in the third quarter against the Tennessee Titans at Raymond James Stadium on November 12, 2023 in Tampa, Florida. (Photograph by Rich Storry/Getty Photos)

    Rich Storry/Getty Photos

    Right here is a excessive-worth prop to birth us off, with Baker Mayfield at plus money to throw now no longer now no longer as a lot as 2 touchdowns.

    Mayfield has been a excessive-quantity scorer this season, ranking 13th in passing touchdowns heading into Week 11, with 14. He’s additionally thrown two or extra landing passes in 5 video games this season, along with his final three consecutively.

    So why the sure moneyline on this prop? Effectively, he’ll be dealing with off against the San Francisco 49ers, who saved Trevor Lawrence from tossing a single landing final week and possess allowed the 2d-lowest moderate touchdowns per recreation, at lawful 1.6.

    And but, the 49ers possess given up an moderate of two touchdowns per recreation in their final three and gave up 5 entire in Weeks 7 and eight, losses to the Minnesota Vikings and Cincinnati Bengals respectively. The 49ers secondary is now no longer an impenetrable fortress, and Mayfield would possibly possibly also simply nonetheless be ready to search out the end zone twice thru the air against them.

Josh Allen Anytime TD (+140)

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    ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 13: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Payments rushes for a landing against the Denver Broncos at some stage in the fourth quarter at Highmark Stadium on November 13, 2023 in Orchard Park, Recent York. (Photograph by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Photos)

    Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Photos

    Whenever you happen to’re gonna take plus money on any landing props, why now no longer resolve someone who can gather the end zone along with his arm and his legs?

    There’s no set apart a query to the Buffalo Payments are in a tough stretch, coming off an grotesque 24-22 loss to the Denver Broncos thru which Josh Allen threw two picks and additionally fumbled the ball. The 5-5 Payments are falling farther and farther in the abet of the division-main Miami Dolphins and must fight to care for up their playoff potentialities alive.

    That’s why Allen would possibly possibly also simply nonetheless be aggressive in their Week 11 matchup against the Recent York Jets. Despite their own woes, the Jets possess had a necessary scoring defense, allowing 1.7 touchdowns per recreation on moderate, the third-lowest in the league.

    But even supposing the Payments can totally take care of to position six on the board just a few times against the Jets, the potentialities that this will possibly possibly be credited to Allen, whether or now no longer fling or bound, are excessive. Allen has now no longer now no longer as a lot as one passing landing in every recreation this season, and he is scored on the bottom in seven of 10 video games, along with his final four straight.

Luke Musgrave over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

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    PITTSBURGH, PA - NOVEMBER 12: Luke Musgrave #88 of the Green Bay Packers makes a salvage at some stage in an NFL football recreation against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium on November 12, 2023 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photograph by Perry Knotts/Getty Photos)

    Perry Knotts/Getty Photos

    If the outdated two excessive-worth props possess you feeling a little scared, this one would possibly possibly also simply nonetheless be worthy safer. Indeed, the while the negative moneyline for this prop method you would possibly possibly possibly must make investments a little extra upfront, the return feels rather stable.

    The Packers drafted tight end Luke Musgrave this spring now no longer lawful for his in-line blocking skills nonetheless his doable to stretch the self-discipline as a main fling-catcher. At 6’6″ and 253 kilos, he has spectacular velocity for his size, and Love has gotten elated trusting him in excessive-stakes instances, whether or now no longer it be on deep balls (Musgrave is third amongst tight ends in deep targets, per FantasyPros) or in the crimson zone (three targets over his final two video games).

    Musgrave has surpassed this prop in four of his final 5 video games, and he is coming off a profession-excessive 64 yards in Week 10. His matchup this week would possibly possibly no longer be better because the Packers host the Los Angeles Chargers, who possess allowed the most receiving yards per recreation to tight ends.

    Safe the overall props for this week’s video games at DraftKings.

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