361,000 New Friends, But Where’s the Money? XTB Shares Plunge as Q2 Results Miss Estimates
XTB shares (WSE:
XTB) tumbled over 6% this
morning (Friday) after the Polish fintech dealer revealed preliminary results
that upset investors, no matter environment unusual data for shopper acquisition
and revenue increase. Regardless that
quarterly earnings appear ample, they declined on a half of-one year basis by
11%. Nonetheless, analysts mediate this will be most productive a non permanent correction.
XTB Experiences Get Earnings
Under Analyst Consensus
XTB
reported win
profit of 216.1 million PLN for the 2d quarter, greater than 160 million PLN in the identical interval final one year; nevertheless, it fell short of
analyst consensus estimates of spherical 240–250 million PLN. While quarterly
earnings elevated when put next to Q1 2025, the first-half of results confirmed a 11.4% decline when put next to H1 2024.
For the
six-month interval, consolidated win profit reached 410.1 million PLN, down from 463.0 million PLN in the first half of of 2024. This tumble took place no matter chronicle working
revenues hiking 23.8% one year-over-one year to 1.16 billion PLN.
The
dealer’s ticket structure tells the legend unhurried the profit decline. Working
costs surged 48% to 608.7 million PLN in the first half of, pushed primarily by
advertising and marketing and marketing investments that jumped 69% to 264.4 million PLN as XTB pursued
aggressive shopper acquisition campaigns.
Myth Consumer Growth Fails
to Galvanize
Despite
lacking profit targets, XTB delivered spectacular shopper metrics that will even
in most cases excite investors. The corporate added 361,643 unusual purchasers in the first
half of – a 55.7% lengthen from the old one year. Active purchasers reached a chronicle
853,938, up practically 70% one year-over-one year.
July
continued this momentum with over 61,900 unusual purchasers becoming a member of the platform in
correct 30 days, suggesting the 2d quarter’s shopper acquisition stir of
167,339 wasn’t an anomaly.
Maciej Marcinowski, Deputy Head of Research Division at Trigon DM
On the other hand, Maciej
Marcinowski, analyst of the Polish brokerage home Trigon, infamous that shopper
acquisition a chunk upset relative to expectations, with some
suggesting XTB must return to adding 180,000–190,000 unusual purchasers per quarter
in Q3.
“On one
hand, our win profit forecast for 2025 desires to be revised down by 3–4 percent.
On the other hand, if our assumption a couple of unfavorable contribution from market making
this quarter proves factual, our mannequin indicates an upward revision of
forecasts for the impending years,” Marcinowski commented on the preliminary
results.
Market Making Margins
Below Stress
The revenue
legend furthermore can even goal uncover why investors remain concerned no matter solid topline
increase. Profitability per lot – a key metric for CFD brokers – declined to 251
PLN from 289 PLN in H1 2024, reflecting entertaining market prerequisites for the
company’s market-making operations.
Marcinowski
instructed that market-making revenues can even goal bear if truth be told turned unfavorable in Q2,
a significant shift for XTB’s industry mannequin. “We would bother announcing that
market-making revenues were even a chunk unfavorable this quarter versus our
expectation of 58 million PLN,” he infamous.
The decline
in per-lot profitability took place no matter trading volumes surging 41.5% to 4.23
million loads, highlighting how market prerequisites can compress margins whilst
task increases.
Foreign money Headwinds
Together with to
profit pressures, XTB faced significant international change headwinds. Financial
costs ballooned to 85.1 million PLN in the first half of when put next to correct
513,000 PLN in the prior one year, largely attributable to unfavorable forex variations of
approximately 40 million PLN.
“Working
results are 7 percent below forecasts, whereas win profit deviates more
vastly attributable to PLN 40 million in unfavorable change price variations (we
had assumed PLN 20 million),” added Marcinowski.
This forex
affect became once roughly double what analysts had anticipated, contributing to the
bigger-than-expected omit on bottom-line results.
Funding Mode Continues
Omar Arnaout, CEO of XTB, Source: LinkedIn
CEO Omar
Arnaout emphasized that XTB remains in funding mode, prioritizing market
portion increase over non permanent profitability. He is thus sustaining the approach
he talked about for the interval of the interview I conducted when I visited XTB’s headquarters
final one year. The corporate expects total working costs can even upward thrust 40% in 2025
when put next to 2024, with advertising and marketing and marketing costs doubtlessly increasing 80%.
“Despite
vastly greater advertising and marketing and marketing expenditures each in Poland and international markets,
we withhold the average ticket of shopper acquisition at a identical stage,”
Arnaout said. “I am furthermore elated that we are going to exceed the threshold of
two million purchasers this calendar one year.”
Linked: XTB Co-Founder Jakub Zablocki Continues Liquidation: Supplied $194M Worth of Dealer Shares
Technical Image Weakens
and Blended Analyst Reactions
From a
technical standpoint, Friday’s decline pushed XTB shares in direction of toughen on the
70 PLN stage, representing the lower boundary of an uptrend channel that has
contained the stock since May perchance doubtless doubtless 2024. It created a visual downward gap on the
chart as shares fell below the 200-day exponential provocative average.
XTB shares fall below the 200 EMA, testing 70 PLN label. Source: Tradingview.com
Analyst
sentiment remains divided. While some gaze the outcomes as just and witness the
selloff as a attempting for alternative, others boom anguish referring to the trajectory of
profitability metrics.
Arkadiusz Jóżwiak, Editor-in-Chief at Comparic.pl
In accordance to Arkadiusz Jóźwiak, a Polish financial journalist and analyst, investors are at chance of react negatively to XTB’s earnings experiences, although the company usually rebounds rapidly later on.
“XTB has successfully reset all of this one year’s positive aspects. On the other hand, if the stock doesn’t fall below the unusual stage of spherical 70 złoty, it’ll also contemporary a attempting for alternative at powerful more glowing costs than the over-90 złoty viewed in May perchance doubtless doubtless. In particular when we witness on the company’s ticket history over most fresh years. For the rationale that pandemic lows, its cost has elevated by bigger than 2,500%, with practically uninterrupted increase,” Jóźwiak commented.
Mikołaj Lemańczyk, Analyst at mBank
Mikołaj
Lemańczyk from mBank infamous that whereas shopper KPIs remained solid, “the
results remind us that now and again there are weaker quarters by manner of
profitability per lot, and this must be taken into narrative in long-term company
evaluation.”
XTB’s
transformation from a mature CFD dealer to a whole fintech
platform continues, but Friday’s market reaction suggests investors must witness
this evolution translate into sustained profit increase alongside the spectacular
shopper metrics.
XTB shares were furthermore negatively affected in early July by an alleged hack described by one of many platform’s purchasers. Regardless that XTB did no longer affirm the incident, the company responded to the publicity by strengthening its security features and asserting plans to introduce crucial two-notify authentication (2FA).
That you may also goal furthermore admire: XTB Targets 7 Million PEA Prolonged-Term Merchants Over 30,000 CFD Merchants in France
XTB shares (WSE:
XTB) tumbled over 6% this
morning (Friday) after the Polish fintech dealer revealed preliminary results
that upset investors, no matter environment unusual data for shopper acquisition
and revenue increase. Regardless that
quarterly earnings appear ample, they declined on a half of-one year basis by
11%. Nonetheless, analysts mediate this will be most productive a non permanent correction.
XTB Experiences Get Earnings
Under Analyst Consensus
XTB
reported win
profit of 216.1 million PLN for the 2d quarter, greater than 160 million PLN in the identical interval final one year; nevertheless, it fell short of
analyst consensus estimates of spherical 240–250 million PLN. While quarterly
earnings elevated when put next to Q1 2025, the first-half of results confirmed a 11.4% decline when put next to H1 2024.
For the
six-month interval, consolidated win profit reached 410.1 million PLN, down from 463.0 million PLN in the first half of of 2024. This tumble took place no matter chronicle working
revenues hiking 23.8% one year-over-one year to 1.16 billion PLN.
The
dealer’s ticket structure tells the legend unhurried the profit decline. Working
costs surged 48% to 608.7 million PLN in the first half of, pushed primarily by
advertising and marketing and marketing investments that jumped 69% to 264.4 million PLN as XTB pursued
aggressive shopper acquisition campaigns.
Myth Consumer Growth Fails
to Galvanize
Despite
lacking profit targets, XTB delivered spectacular shopper metrics that will even
in most cases excite investors. The corporate added 361,643 unusual purchasers in the first
half of – a 55.7% lengthen from the old one year. Active purchasers reached a chronicle
853,938, up practically 70% one year-over-one year.
July
continued this momentum with over 61,900 unusual purchasers becoming a member of the platform in
correct 30 days, suggesting the 2d quarter’s shopper acquisition stir of
167,339 wasn’t an anomaly.
Maciej Marcinowski, Deputy Head of Research Division at Trigon DM
On the other hand, Maciej
Marcinowski, analyst of the Polish brokerage home Trigon, infamous that shopper
acquisition a chunk upset relative to expectations, with some
suggesting XTB must return to adding 180,000–190,000 unusual purchasers per quarter
in Q3.
“On one
hand, our win profit forecast for 2025 desires to be revised down by 3–4 percent.
On the other hand, if our assumption a couple of unfavorable contribution from market making
this quarter proves factual, our mannequin indicates an upward revision of
forecasts for the impending years,” Marcinowski commented on the preliminary
results.
Market Making Margins
Below Stress
The revenue
legend furthermore can even goal uncover why investors remain concerned no matter solid topline
increase. Profitability per lot – a key metric for CFD brokers – declined to 251
PLN from 289 PLN in H1 2024, reflecting entertaining market prerequisites for the
company’s market-making operations.
Marcinowski
instructed that market-making revenues can even goal bear if truth be told turned unfavorable in Q2,
a significant shift for XTB’s industry mannequin. “We would bother announcing that
market-making revenues were even a chunk unfavorable this quarter versus our
expectation of 58 million PLN,” he infamous.
The decline
in per-lot profitability took place no matter trading volumes surging 41.5% to 4.23
million loads, highlighting how market prerequisites can compress margins whilst
task increases.
Foreign money Headwinds
Together with to
profit pressures, XTB faced significant international change headwinds. Financial
costs ballooned to 85.1 million PLN in the first half of when put next to correct
513,000 PLN in the prior one year, largely attributable to unfavorable forex variations of
approximately 40 million PLN.
“Working
results are 7 percent below forecasts, whereas win profit deviates more
vastly attributable to PLN 40 million in unfavorable change price variations (we
had assumed PLN 20 million),” added Marcinowski.
This forex
affect became once roughly double what analysts had anticipated, contributing to the
bigger-than-expected omit on bottom-line results.
Funding Mode Continues
Omar Arnaout, CEO of XTB, Source: LinkedIn
CEO Omar
Arnaout emphasized that XTB remains in funding mode, prioritizing market
portion increase over non permanent profitability. He is thus sustaining the approach
he talked about for the interval of the interview I conducted when I visited XTB’s headquarters
final one year. The corporate expects total working costs can even upward thrust 40% in 2025
when put next to 2024, with advertising and marketing and marketing costs doubtlessly increasing 80%.
“Despite
vastly greater advertising and marketing and marketing expenditures each in Poland and international markets,
we withhold the average ticket of shopper acquisition at a identical stage,”
Arnaout said. “I am furthermore elated that we are going to exceed the threshold of
two million purchasers this calendar one year.”
Linked: XTB Co-Founder Jakub Zablocki Continues Liquidation: Supplied $194M Worth of Dealer Shares
Technical Image Weakens
and Blended Analyst Reactions
From a
technical standpoint, Friday’s decline pushed XTB shares in direction of toughen on the
70 PLN stage, representing the lower boundary of an uptrend channel that has
contained the stock since May perchance doubtless doubtless 2024. It created a visual downward gap on the
chart as shares fell below the 200-day exponential provocative average.
XTB shares fall below the 200 EMA, testing 70 PLN label. Source: Tradingview.com
Analyst
sentiment remains divided. While some gaze the outcomes as just and witness the
selloff as a attempting for alternative, others boom anguish referring to the trajectory of
profitability metrics.
Arkadiusz Jóżwiak, Editor-in-Chief at Comparic.pl
In accordance to Arkadiusz Jóźwiak, a Polish financial journalist and analyst, investors are at chance of react negatively to XTB’s earnings experiences, although the company usually rebounds rapidly later on.
“XTB has successfully reset all of this one year’s positive aspects. On the other hand, if the stock doesn’t fall below the unusual stage of spherical 70 złoty, it’ll also contemporary a attempting for alternative at powerful more glowing costs than the over-90 złoty viewed in May perchance doubtless doubtless. In particular when we witness on the company’s ticket history over most fresh years. For the rationale that pandemic lows, its cost has elevated by bigger than 2,500%, with practically uninterrupted increase,” Jóźwiak commented.
Mikołaj Lemańczyk, Analyst at mBank
Mikołaj
Lemańczyk from mBank infamous that whereas shopper KPIs remained solid, “the
results remind us that now and again there are weaker quarters by manner of
profitability per lot, and this must be taken into narrative in long-term company
evaluation.”
XTB’s
transformation from a mature CFD dealer to a whole fintech
platform continues, but Friday’s market reaction suggests investors must witness
this evolution translate into sustained profit increase alongside the spectacular
shopper metrics.
XTB shares were furthermore negatively affected in early July by an alleged hack described by one of many platform’s purchasers. Regardless that XTB did no longer affirm the incident, the company responded to the publicity by strengthening its security features and asserting plans to introduce crucial two-notify authentication (2FA).
That you may also goal furthermore admire: XTB Targets 7 Million PEA Prolonged-Term Merchants Over 30,000 CFD Merchants in France
