US stock market crash: December cycle prediction plays out as Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow Jones bleed

Nasdaq plunges 20%, S&P 500 and Dow Jones tumble as Trump’s tariffs spark paunchy-scale correction—historic patterns signal deeper losses ahead

The writing modified into once on the wall, as clearly outlined in our December 2024 prognosis titled “Is the US stock market bull bustle operating out of steam? Historical patterns signal that it’s good to maybe maybe probably probably take into consideration endgame.” At that point, our prognosis warned patrons that predominant US indices—the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones—own been nearing severe inflection points after a relentless bull market bustle. The Nasdaq 100 peaked around 22010, the S&P 500 at 6020, and the Dow Jones at roughly 45050.

Hastily-forward to April 2025, and the predictions are manifesting sooner than our eyes. Structural weaknesses first noticed in February 2025 own now deepened into a valuable market downturn, exacerbated by geopolitical turmoil from the “Trump Liberation Day” tariffs. These tariffs own now no longer easiest unsettled world change nonetheless moreover acted as the supreme catalyst triggering awe-promoting across fairness markets.

December 2024 prognosis headline

Nasdaq 100 enters endure market territory

The Nasdaq 100, customarily aloof to shifts in possibility sentiment, has now fallen dramatically into a textbook endure market, declining 20% from its all-time high. At the time of writing, the index trades shut to the severe toughen at 17285, marking the 2nd stage of the predicted predominant pullback. The selling intensified sharply in the previous two buying and selling lessons, shedding higher than 5% amid intensifying fears of prolonged change tensions.

Technical prognosis indicates that if Nasdaq loses the quick toughen level at 17444, it opens the door for extra declines toward 16836. Any rapid-term recovery attempts face valuable resistance around 18205 after which again at the severe pivot shut to 18440.

Nasdaq 100 December 2024 prognosis

Nasdaq 100 April 4th 2025 prognosis

S&P 500 deepens correction, severe ranges coming near

The S&P 500 (SPX) has mirrored the Nasdaq’s weak point, struggling severe losses and declining over 16% from its narrative highs. Within the supreme two days by myself, SPX dropped 6%, underscoring market awe. For the time being, the index is attempting out a valuable technical zone at 5151—the 2nd stage of its corrective cycle identified in December’s prognosis.

If promoting strain persists below 5151, patrons also can glance accelerated declines toward subsequent toughen ranges at 5030 and 4955. A doable third stage of this predominant market correction would probably force prices even decrease, focusing on the needed toughen level at 4834. Any upside recovery would bump into valuable resistance at 5225 and 5300, limiting the potentialities of a sustained rebound in the shut to term.

US 500 December 2024 prognosis

US 500 April 4th 2025 prognosis

Dow Jones faces China’s retaliation

The Dow Jones Industrial Moderate (DJIA), beforehand regarded as a haven for steadiness, is moreover bleeding intently. The DJIA has dropped by roughly 1450 points over two lessons, marking a decline of over 14% from its historic highs. China’s swift retaliatory tariffs in opposition to Trump’s policies extra intensified promoting strain, utilizing the Dow Jones sharply decrease.

For the time being buying and selling at the severe 2nd-stage toughen of 38982, extra scheme back appears to be like to be extra and extra probably. Will own to the index fail to support this level, subsequent toughen ranges are found at 38508 and, significantly, 37743. A deeper third-stage correction notify outlined in our December prognosis targets the severe psychological and technical toughen at 36504. Any bullish reversal strive faces massive resistance at 39747 and, extra significantly, at 40230.

Dow Jones December 2024 prognosis

Dow Jones April 4th 2025 prognosis

Most important catalysts fueling the sell-off

The recent sell-off has now no longer easiest been a technical phenomenon nonetheless moreover reflects valuable classic shifts:

• Trump Liberation Day Tariffs: These protectionist policies, at the beginning focusing on Canada and Mexico, own expanded into a broader change battle with China, severely disrupting world change dynamics and investor self belief.
• Deteriorating Financial Outlook: Rising geopolitical tensions blended with elevated inflation and fervour fee pressures from the Federal Reserve own extra deteriorated sentiment.
• Company Earnings Issues: With tariffs affecting offer chains and profitability, patrons now now no longer sleep for weaker company earnings guidance, including fuel to market declines.

Historical patterns offer clues for what’s subsequent

Historical patterns, as broadly detailed in our December 2024 prognosis, counsel that the marketing customarily accelerates once markets enter this correction phase sooner than reaching a sustainable backside. Traders also can aloof brace for heightened volatility and extra scheme back dangers except clearer signs of stabilization emerge, potentially over the coming months and even a one year.

Conclusion and investor takeaways

The ongoing market turmoil is a nicely timed reminder of the predictive power of historic cycles and entire technical prognosis. Traders also can aloof direct caution and remain vigilant of severe ranges highlighted on this prognosis. While rapid-term rebounds also can occur, the broader construction clearly points toward sustained bearish strain.

As markets navigate these turbulent waters, prudently managed portfolios, cautious possibility management, and shut monitoring of technical and classic indicators may maybe be needed. I will continue to provide nicely timed updates to details patrons through these phenomenal market tendencies.