Redrafting Nikola Jokić, Joel Embiid and the 2014 NBA Draft Lottery

The 2023 NBA Finals featured a pair of superstars who slipped grand extra within the draft than they ought to’ve: Jimmy Butler and Nikola Jokić.

In 2011, Butler used to be the Thirtieth and final decide of the critical round. Three years later, Jokić used to be selected within the second round with the No. 41 decide and all the diagram in which thru a Taco Bell commercial.

If either of those years were redrafted, the remark would be loads varied. In the present day, we are going to discover particularly at Jokić’s year. Click right here to discover if Butler would stir No. 1.

With the merit of hindsight, statistics and data of developments within the game that nobody had 13 years within the past, we are going to revisit the lottery and a handful of honorable mentions.

T.J. Warren (At the muse Picked 14th)

Accidents dangle restricted T.J. Warren to right 41.6 video games per season, nevertheless he’s been an on a typical basis scorer when healthy. From 2017-18 to 2019-20, he averaged 19.3 facets per sport.

Jordan Clarkson (At the muse Picked forty sixth)

Effectivity has never been his solid suit, nevertheless Jordan Clarkson as a Sixth Man of the Year trophy and has averaged double figures in each of his nine NBA seasons.

Joe Harris (At the muse Picked thirty third)

It took him a pair years to search out his space within the NBA, nevertheless Joe Harris rapid grew to modified into considered among the league’s most productive shooters once he did. He’s fourth of all time in occupation three-level share.

Maxi Kleber (At the muse Undrafted)

His numbers would possibly perchance perchance well maybe no longer blow someone away, nevertheless Maxi Kleber’s protection, in particular his shot-blocking, has made him a priceless half for the rationale that Dallas Mavericks brought him over before the 2017-18 season. In 2019-20 and 2020-21, he additionally shot 38.8 p.c from three.

Jabari Parker (At the muse Picked 2nd)

Regarded as among the sadder anxiety reports in most trendy memory, Jabari Parker used to be a contender for the highest decide in 2014. Two ACL tears derailed his occupation, and the second came after a season whereby he averaged over 20 facets per sport.

14. Dwight Powell (At the muse Picked forty fifth)

His numbers (7.6 facets and 4.5 rebounds for his occupation) aren’t tough, nevertheless Dwight Powell has been a respectable effort participant and rim runner for a decade. And that’s something that brings right rate for a crew with a prolific decide-and-roll handler equivalent to Luka Dončić.

Over the direction of his occupation, the Dallas Mavericks are plus-1.5 facets per 100 possessions with Powell on the floor and minus-0.7 when he’s off.

13. Jusuf Nurkić (At the muse Picked 16th)

Accidents dangle restricted Jusuf Nurkić to right 38.3 appearances over the closing four seasons, nevertheless since he joined the Portland Walk Blazers all the diagram in which thru the 2016-17 season, he’s been considered among the league’s more productive bigs when healthy.

As a Blazer, he has assign apart up 14.4 facets, 9.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.2 blocks.

12. Bogdan Bogdanović (At the muse Picked twenty seventh)

Bogdan Bogdanović performed 5 seasons in a international country before becoming a member of the NBA, so he used to be more experienced than most inexperienced persons. And that’s showed up in his accepted play and production.

Over six NBA seasons with the Sacramento Kings and Atlanta Hawks, Bogdanović has averaged 14.2 facets in 28.5 minutes whereas taking pictures 38.7 p.c from deep.

11. Jerami Grant (At the muse Picked thirty ninth)

Jerami Grant’s evolution from second-round decide to three-and-D specialist to twenty-level-per-sport scorer is impressive.

After averaging 9.3 facets and taking pictures 34.7 p.c from three over his first six seasons, he’s at 20.7 with a 37.2 three-level share over his closing three.

At the muse Picked 38th

His appearances had been sporadic, at most productive, for grand of his occupation. Over nine seasons, he’s averaged 51.8 video games per year.

However when he’s healthy, Spencer Dinwiddie has been a dynamic scorer and playmaker who can pilot an offense or play second fiddle as he did alongside Dončić.

Over his closing 5 seasons with the Brooklyn Nets and Dallas Mavericks, the 30-year-old assign apart up 17.0 facets, 5.7 assists and 1.9 threes.

And for his whole occupation, his groups had been moderately greater when he plays.

Sure, accidents and a few taking pictures inefficiency are a plan within the highest 10, nevertheless Dinwiddie’s capability to create photographs for himself and others alleviates that to a stage.

At the muse Picked twenty fifth

For four seasons alongside James Harden with the Houston Rockets, Clint Capela used to be considered among the game’s more unhealthy rim-runners and rim-protectors.

From 2016-17 to 2019-20, the 29-year-old averaged 14.3 facets, 11.1 rebounds and 1.6 blocks, whereas taking pictures 64.5 p.c from the sphere.

Then, in his first season with the Atlanta Hawks, he averaged a occupation-high 2.0 blocks and led the NBA with 14.3 rebounds per sport.

He plays with one other prolific succor man in Atlanta in Trae Younger, nevertheless his time there has proved his sport can chase a tiny bit.

And whereas it’s honest to seek data from the upside of a huge who has to dangle most of his offense created for him, there would possibly perchance be additionally rate in a finisher of this caliber.

Dunks are likely the most atmosphere friendly diagram to rating, and a huge who is aware of when to lower, can form above the rim and has ultimate hands can salvage you a mountainous selection of them.

At the muse Picked Thirtieth

This would possibly perchance occasionally perchance well perchance with out a doubt feel mighty high for a participant with Kyle Anderson’s occupation averages of 7.0 facets, 4.5 rebounds and 2.6 assists, nevertheless he’s considered among the game’s most productive examples that basketball is ready more than traditional numbers.

The 29-year-old is considered among the NBA’s most productive connectors. At 6’9″, and with the background of a major playmaker, he’s with out a doubt a positionless participant. He can guard all over the assign the floor, frustrate isolation scorers, muck up passing lanes, plan up open teammates and even hit the occasional three.

And his intangible-laced sport has resulted in some attention-grabbing numbers, even though his minutes dangle suppressed the fundamental ones.

Draymond Green is the very best participant in NBA history who fits or exceeds all of Anderson’s occupation marks for succor share, rebound share, block share and grab share.

At the muse Picked 6th

Esteem Anderson, Marcus Natty’s occupation per-sport averages likely aren’t going to blow someone away.

Over his nine seasons with the Boston Celtics, he’s assign apart up 10.6 facets and 4.6 assists, whereas taking pictures one diagram-beneath-practical 32.3 p.c from three.

However for many of his occupation, the 29-year-old has been a defensive menace who sets the tone for Boston’s protection at the level of attack.

He’s made three All-Defense groups and done the rare feat of securing Defensive Player of the Year as a guard in 2022. And since he joined the Celtics, Boston is first within the league in facets allowed per 100 possessions.

Getting that roughly protection out of the level guard space, alongside with a sprinkle of introduction for teammates, is properly rate a borderline top-5 decide.

At the muse Picked 4th

Aaron Gordon has dramatically modified the plan of himself and his sport since he used to be got by the Denver Nuggets all the diagram in which thru the 2020-21 season.

With the Orlando Magic, the 27-year-old most ceaselessly seemed devour a vitality ahead moonlighting as a 3. He had the next three-level try rate there. He seemed more intent on attacking out of isolation as a soar.

With Denver, he’s streamlined his attack. He’ll mild rob open threes and attack mismatches, nevertheless those possessions are more calculated. Mighty of his scoring now would possibly perchance perchance well maybe be the consequence of chopping, ending lobs and taking half in off Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray. The consequence is a appropriate taking pictures share that’s nearly seven facets greater than it used to be with the Magic.

Gordon has additionally emerged as considered among the game’s greater and more versatile defenders. This postseason on my own, he’s been tasked with defending Karl-Anthony Towns, Kevin Durant, LeBron James and Jimmy Butler. And folk groups had been held to right 97.0 facets per 100 possessions when Gordon used to be on those four.

The league practical this abnormal season used to be 114.8.

At the muse Picked 13th

It be long past a tiny bit beneath the radar because the Chicago Bulls dangle most productive made one playoff appearance all the diagram in which thru this stretch, nevertheless Zach LaVine has modified into considered among the very best scorers on this planet.

Over the closing 5 years, he’s inserting up 25.1 facets with a 55.1 efficient field-purpose share. There are most productive six avid gamers within the NBA who match or exceed each marks all the diagram in which thru the an identical stretch.

And whereas scoring is with out agonize the critical calling card for the 28-year-old, it will not be any longer the very best reveal he’s been up to with the Bulls.

In the midst of this half of decade, LaVine is additionally averaging 4.5 assists. And his 38.8 three-level share (on 7.1 attempts per sport) make him the roughly shooter who requires fixed attention on the perimeter. That, no doubt, opens up things within for his teammates (or his respect drives).

At the muse Picked Seventh

Julius Randle has removed from the most aesthetically honest sport in this redraft. He most ceaselessly appears to be like to be recklessly barreling in the direction of the rim, with out a discernible plan on what to realize once he gets there (or alongside the diagram).

His lefty jumper would no longer exactly evoke recollections of Michael Redd or Chris Mullin, either. However it completely’s exhausting to argue with the outcomes.

Randle, 28, is considered one of right three avid gamers from this class with an All-NBA nod (he has two, whereas Jokić and Joel Embiid dangle 5 each).

And over the closing three seasons, he’s performed 220 video games and averaged 23.2 facets, 10.0 rebounds and 5.1 assists.

Getting that form of production from a 6’8″, 250-pound bully-ball ahead is amazingly queer.

In actual fact, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Larry Rooster, Wilt Chamberlain, Kevin Garnett, Jokić, Oscar Robertson, Chris Webber and Russell Westbrook are the very best varied avid gamers in NBA history to compare or exceed all three of those marks over a 220-sport span.

At the muse Picked 1st

If this redraft were primarily based fully fully on superior stats, the right No. 1 decide shouldn’t dangle even made the lottery.

Among avid gamers with out a doubt selected on draft evening and without a longer lower than 1,000 occupation minutes, Andrew Wiggins ranks 23rd in field plus/minus, 18th in wins over replacement participant (the cumulative version of field plus/minus), twenty seventh in bag shares per forty eight minutes and 12th in bag shares.

Those marks are the consequence of very restricted statistical contributions out of doors the scoring column and a beneath-practical efficient field-purpose share in each season sooner than becoming a member of the Golden Speak Warriors paunchy-time.

Esteem Gordon, though, the plan of Wiggins modified dramatically once he used to be recast into the right feature.

With the Warriors, the 28-year-old’s one-man assaults had been restricted (or almost eliminated altogether). He now takes ultimate thing about open procure-and-shoot alternatives or assaults a rotating protection that’s been scrambled by Stephen Curry.

And a wiser methodology on the offensive quit has freed him up to play greater and more committed protection.

All of that came collectively brilliantly all the diagram in which thru the 2022 playoffs, when Wiggins used to be, arguably, Golden Speak’s second-most productive participant on the diagram to a championship.

At the muse Picked third

In his lone season at Kansas, Joel Embiid averaged right 11.2 facets per sport. Then he used to be compelled to take a seat down down what would had been the critical two seasons of his NBA occupation with an anxiety.

Before the 2016-17 season (Embiid’s respectable rookie advertising and marketing and marketing campaign), it used to be moderately straightforward to misfortune concerning the prolonged-term viability of the gigantic man.

Seven years later, the 29-year-old has obliterated those considerations on his diagram to turning into considered among the ideal scorers and disagreeable drawers in NBA history.

Among avid gamers without a longer lower than 10,000 occupation minutes, he’s first in occupation facets per 75 possessions, tied for sixth in occupation facets per sport, first in occupation free-throw attempts per 75 possessions and third in occupation free-throw attempts per sport.

And all that scoring has had a right affect on the Philadelphia 76ers, too. In the midst of his occupation, they’ve scored 116.1 facets per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor and 108.8 when he’s off.

On scoring capability and production on my own, Embiid would dangle this No. 2 narrate locked up, nevertheless that’s no longer all he does.

He’s additionally been the unquestioned anchor of Philadelphia’s protection all the diagram in which thru his occupation. And over the direction of those seven seasons, the 76ers are sixth in facets allowed per 100 possessions, whereas Embiid is tied for ninth in blocks per sport.

At the muse Picked Forty first

Going from the Forty first decide within the draft to the very best basketball participant on this planet is a with out a doubt an unparalleled path, which appears to be like becoming for a participant with a with out a doubt unparalleled sport.

His teammate, Ish Smith, summed it up properly on NBA Finals media day, when he when put next Jokić’s shotmaking to Dirk Nowitzki, his passing to Arvydas Sabonis and his rebounding to Zach Randolph (and even that likely sells the passing short).

It be an absurd combination of capability that has slowly nevertheless completely lifted Jokić to the very top of the NBA’s occupation field plus/minus leaderboard, right earlier than Michael Jordan and LeBron James.

It be why he leads the league in triple-doubles over the closing three seasons.

It be why he’s averaged a mind-bending 26.0 facets, 12.2 rebounds, 8.7 assists and 1.4 steals, whereas posting a 66.8 appropriate taking pictures share over the an identical span.

It be why Jokić has almost twice as many occupation wins over replacement participant than his closest rival (Embiid) amongst 2014 draftees.

It be why the Denver Nuggets dangle won their first NBA championship in franchise history.

At 28 years old, Jokić has ascended to the “unofficial most productive participant on this planet” throne (and with out a doubt, the numbers allege he ought to’ve been there for no longer lower than the closing three years), is considered among the ideal passers of all time and is considered among the crucial evident redraft No. 1 picks we now dangle had.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers: Andrew Wiggins

2. Milwaukee Bucks: Jabari Parker

3. Philadelphia 76ers: Joel Embiid

4. Orlando Magic: Aaron Gordon

5. Utah Jazz: Dante Exum

6. Boston Celtics: Marcus Natty

7. Los Angeles Lakers: Julius Randle

8. Sacramento Kings: Nik Stauskas

9. Charlotte Hornets: Noah Vonleh

10. Philadelphia 76ers (substitute to ORL): Elfrid Payton

11. Denver Nuggets (substitute to CHI): Doug McDermott

12. Orlando Magic (substitute to PHI): Dario Saric

13. Minnesota Timberwolves: Zach LaVine

14. Phoenix Suns: T.J. Warren