NFL 2024 rookie QB outlook: Best-case scenarios for Caleb Williams, other Year 1 signal-callers

What’s the worst that will happen? An attractive request to request when a rookie quarterback is thrust onto an NFL discipline in his rookie season, in particular if most imagine he’s playing too soon. 

Yet NFL coaches are other folks factual esteem the remainder of us, and society this day is now not any longer too pondering about waiting to gather their young quarterbacks proper into a frequent-season sport. And as we comprise considered with the likes of C.J. Stroud, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow, veritably rookie passers can trip a most effective-case scenario in Year 1. 

On this article, I’ve long past deep and gotten very particular in my resolution of essentially the most straightforward- and worst-case scenarios for the 2024 rookie quarterbacks, factual esteem I did final yr for Bryce Young, Stroud, Anthony Richardson and Co. As you are going to gaze below, the figures are based upon these quarterbacks with out a doubt getting a probability to play with out a doubt in depth snaps of their first seasons — which, clearly, is now not any longer a affirm for all those passers drafted early in boring April.

For the sake of this portion, we’ll think the quarterbacks integrated all collect a huge opportunity. Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels are locks for that. Drake Maye, presumably. J.J. McCarthy feels esteem the classic “he may presumably well presumably no longer deserve to play until December” rookie who’ll be on the discipline sooner than later, and Bo Nix, almost by default resulting from the remainder of the Broncos quarterback depth chart, will play the immense majority of his rookie season. From there, I took liberties with how remarkable above or below the averages I with out a doubt feel every quarterback may presumably well presumably land in a most effective- and worst-case scenario.

To originate up, I discovered parameters of expectations for these first-yr passers. As a baseline, I feeble the seasons from the 18 quarterbacks who threw for as a minimal 200 passes as a rookie over the last 5 seasons. Effectively with out a doubt, it is 17 passers plus Brock Purdy. I integrated his gaudy first-yr stats in San Francisco for the typical of all of the neighborhood though he simplest threw 170 passes in his first NFL season because he genuinely reputation a brand unique long-established in rookie quarterback effectivity in 2022. 

Right here’s a peek:

Now, in a excellent world, we’d comprise a remarkable elevated pattern dimension to conduct this peek. Nonetheless, NFL analysis are no longer esteem most other analysis in that a elevated pattern dimension can with out a doubt be counterproductive resulting from how fleet the sport adjustments for every person on the discipline, most critically the quarterbacks. Along with passers from even sooner than, jabber, 2019 feels too out of date to be predictive whatsoever. 

For context on the averages, the 61.5% completion used to be almost a lot like Matthew Stafford final yr. The 6.8 yards-per-are trying figure used to be factual below the 6.9 YPA of Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert and Justin Fields in 2023. The typical TD% of three.8 used to be staunch between Trevor Lawrence (3.7%) and Geno Smith (4.0%) a season within the past. The two.2% interception rate used to be between Stafford and Patrick Mahomes. The collective 82.5 rating would’ve been smack dab between Gardner Minshew (84.6) and Fields (86.3), and the 7.8% sack rate used to be within the fluctuate of Lamar Jackson’s (7.5%) and Jake Browning (9.0%).

Now that it is likely you’ll presumably well additionally fair comprise precise, stat-based expectations to discuss with, let’s collect to most effective- and worst-case scenarios for 2024 rookie passers. 

(Ahead of I originate up … Whereas you are questioning if these are helpful to take a look at and are predictive the least bit, right here used to be the low-discontinuance projection for Bryce Young sooner than his rookie season with the Panthers subsequent to his staunch statistics from Year 1. 

• Young’s worst-case scenario projection: 60% completion, 6.1 yards per are trying, 2,440 passing yards, 10 TD passes, 12 INTs, 32 sacks, 74.1 rating
• Young’s staunch 2023 season: 59.8% completion, 5.5 yards per are trying, 2,877 passing yards, 11 TD passes, 10 INTs, 62 sacks, 73.7 rating

Most efficient-case scenario: 65% completion, 7.5 yards per are trying, 3,750 passing yards, 25 TD passes, 5 INTs, 28 sacks, 100.0 rating
Worst-case scenario: 60% completion, 6.6 yards per are trying, 3,300 passing yards, 17 TD passes, 13 INTs, forty five sacks, 82.5 rating

C.J. Stroud threw 499 passes in 2023 in his exciting NFL debut campaign, so I’m the spend of 500 makes an strive as the benchmark for Williams in these projections. Stroud did omit two games final season attributable to ruin.

On story of I imagine Williams will be chucking it downfield pretty in general — esteem Stroud did — I fabricate no longer foresee, even on the high discontinuance, a huge-high completion rate for the Bears rookie. However the yards per are trying may presumably well presumably fully be tough while the sack rate may presumably well presumably be low, given how ridiculously nimble he is when pressure mounts. 

Williams is such an correct thrower and has a magnificent receiving trio at his disposal. I would be entirely floored if his completion rate is below 60%. Factual couldn’t bring myself to venture any decrease than that. And an excellent deal of his low-discontinuance projections are closer to the typical than Wilson’s 2021. 

Most efficient-case scenario: 67% completion, 7.0 yards per are trying, 4,015 passing yards, 28 TD passes, 8 INTs, 44 sacks, Ninety nine.1 rating
Worst-case scenario: 61% completion, 6.3 yards per are trying, 3,630 passing yards, 22 TD passes, 13 INTs, 55 sacks, 83.8 rating

I fabricate no longer with out a doubt feel manner out on a limb suggesting the Bears defense to be sooner than the Commanders, which must aloof lead to more skedaddle makes an strive for Daniels in a number of more near-from-within the serve of eventualities than Williams. So his projections were per 550 makes an strive as a rookie. On this 5-yr pattern, Lawrence has essentially the most rookie-yr makes an strive at 602, for standpoint. 

For as heavenly of a downfield thrower as Daniels used to be at LSU, I envision more high-share throws within the Washington skedaddle sport in 2024, that must aloof enhance his completion rate. In actuality, in that receiver room it is Terry McLaurin and a series of request marks and perilous commodities. 

And the one certain weak point Daniels demonstrated as a prospect used to be how many times pressures became to sacks, which is why both of his sack projections are barely high. 

Most efficient-case scenario: 62% completion, 7.0 yards per are trying, 3,240 passing yards, 23 TD passes, 10 INTs, 29 sacks, 91.5 rating
Worst-case scenario: 58% completion, 6.4 yards per are trying. 2,700 passing yards, 17 TD passes, 14 INTs, 38 sacks, 75 rating

Basing these on 450 passes from Maye in his rookie season. Whereas the Patriots it is miles going to be trailing more than they’re leading, I attain question the defense to abet them in games, thereby giving offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt huge reason to bustle the soccer in throwback outings of 20-ish years within the past that New England will are trying to acquire 17-14 with out hanging too remarkable on Maye’s plate in Year 1. 

I attain imagine in his arm talent and quarterback amnesia, so there could be a world in which Maye lifts the Patriots’ fair no longer too lengthy within the past stagnant skedaddle sport. There also is a world in which Maye is hindered by the shortcoming of high-discontinuance receiving talent and early life on the roster. 

Most efficient-case scenario: 67% completion, 8.0 yards per are trying, 3,360 passing yards, 21 TD passes, 8 INTs, 25 sacks, 100.8 rating
Worst-case scenario: 62% completion, 6.7 yards per are trying, 1,407 passing yards, 6 TD passes, 5 INTs, 17 sacks, 81.1 rating

For essentially the most straightforward-case scenario I went 420 makes an strive for McCarthy, which averages out to 30 makes an strive all the most reasonable likely draw via 14 contests. No person must be worried if Sam Darnold gets pulled after three games in 2024. Remember, he has to clearly beat out a intellectual unique first-round pick in camp, too, which in my tips, is removed from a affirm, though we’ll hear all in regards to the Vikings taking it slowly with McCarthy until camp begins. 

Given the time-tested excellence of the Shanahan-based offense — and the most reasonable likely draw effectively Kevin O’Connell operated with Kirk Cousins, Joshua Dobbs and Cut Mullens in 2023 — McCarthy may presumably well presumably be essentially the most atmosphere pleasant passer of the neighborhood from a yards-per-are trying standpoint.

For the worst-case scenario, I made up my tips on 210 makes an strive for McCarthy, which is 30 makes an strive in seven games. And that will list a two-layered worst-case scenario for the rookie — he doesn’t peek willing in camp nor the preseason, and Darnold plays inexpensive soccer for 10 games. 

Previous the schematic serve McCarthy has in Minnesota, he also finds himself with an opulent offensive line and ability-web web page neighborhood. His completion rate may presumably well presumably no longer be below 60%, and his worst YPA would be cease to the neighborhood’s average.

Most efficient-case scenario: 65% completion, 7.2 yards per are trying, 3,780 passing yards, 26 TD passes, 8 INTs, 26 sacks, 96.3 rating
Worst-case scenario: 58% completion, 6.2 yards per are trying, 3,255 passing yards, 18 TD passes, 12 INTs, 32 sacks, 78.2 rating

I went with 525 skedaddle makes an strive for both scenarios for Nix — cease to the 521 makes an strive Mac Jones made in 2021. Either manner, the Broncos are riding with Nix in 2024. They comprise to. 

Whereas I fully am with every person who believes Sean Payton will present Nix with a with out a doubt quarterback-pleasant procedure in 2024, the rookie will within the waste deserve to stretch defenses vertically, and I didn’t think he used to be overly correct downfield when he wasn’t throwing to wide-start receivers at Oregon. And that speaks to my projection of a decrease “most effective-case” completion rate than presumably you anticipated. In essentially the most straightforward-case scenario, Payton must aloof abet him barely atmosphere pleasant throwing the ball. 

On the low discontinuance of the spectrum, Nix may presumably well presumably no longer comprise a misguided season resulting from the insulation Payton can present, but the receiver neighborhood is now not any longer heroic and I attain think his lack of premier bodily talent may presumably well presumably anguish him more in general than no longer. Either manner, no longer a huge fluctuate for Nix, that are a fair correct thing.